Egypt fears over currency lead to dollar rush

CAIRO (AP) — As Egypt prepared to release official results of the divisive constitutional referendum on Tuesday, the country edged deeper into economic crisis with some worried residents hoarding dollars for fear that the local currency could weaken significantly.

The anxiety over the economy was visible at currency exchanges in the upscale Cairo neighborhood of Zamalek, which ran out of dollars by midday and offered only euros — a rare occurrence. Some banks, too, said they had run out of cash dollars, forcing people to seek foreign currency from exchanges around the city.

“I asked around in many exchange places and can’t find dollars anywhere,” said Cairo resident Mahmoud Kamel after unsuccessfully visiting one exchange office in Zamalek. “I want to exchange money because I’m afraid the Egyptian pound will not have any value soon.”

Both political instability and economic fundamentals are playing a role in Egypt’s growing financial distress. A constitution drafted by Islamist allies of President Mohammed Morsi deeply polarized the country and sparked huge street demonstrations that at times exploded into deadly violence. According to unofficial results the constitution passed in a referendum over the past two weekends with a 64 percent “yes” vote.

The official result due out later Tuesday is expected to confirm the unofficial tallies.

The dash to sell Egyptian pounds for dollars prompted the Central Bank of Egypt to issue a statement on Monday calling on banks not to listen to rumors circulating about the fiscal health of the nation.

In a statement carried on official news websites, the bank declared its commitment to guarantee all deposits in local and foreign currencies to banks in Egypt and said banks are “financially strong enough” to ensure the fulfillment of any obligations toward clients.

Late Monday, the president issued a decree banning people from leaving Egypt with more than $ 10,000 or its equivalent in other currencies.

There was one particularly nerve-rattling report in recent days that longtime Central Bank Governor Farouk Okdah had resigned. The report came on Saturday during the second and final round of voting on the constitutional referendum.

Official media quickly retracted the news after reporting it. The governor then turned up at a meeting of the government’s economic team on Sunday in an apparent attempt to quell nervousness over the state of the economy.

Egypt’s currency had been stable trading around 6 pounds to the dollar for the first half of the year. It has since slipped, especially in the past two months as political instability worsened. The Central Bank of Egypt listed Tuesday that the dollar was selling at 6.18 to the Egyptian pound. To buy dollars at currency exchanges, the rate was 6.20.

Since Egypt’s uprising nearly two years ago, the country has lost more than half of its foreign currency reserves from $ 36 billion in 2010 to around $ 15 billion currently. The reserve level has been slightly propped up by some Qatari deposits in past months.

Underlining the cash shortage, unofficial estimates put Egypt’s reserves at just around $ 4 billion in hard currency, with the rest in gold and dollar treasury bills for the local market.

Major foreign currency earners, such as foreign direct investment and tourism, have dropped off because of political unrest and deterioration in security following Hosni Mubarak’s ouster in February 2011.

Egypt has requested a $ 4.8 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund to bridge the burgeoning budget deficit, but talks largely stalled this month after mass protests turned violent over disputes around the draft constitution.

Economic experts say that Egypt’s current foreign reserves barely cover three months of imports, which is the IMF’s minimum recommended coverage.

In another blow, Standard & Poors downgraded Egypt’s long-term credit rating by one notch to B-, six steps below investment grade.

One of biggest problems facing the market, according to those experts, is a lack of transparency on the part of President Mohammed Morsi’s government.

“The economy is a reflection of the political unrest,” said Khaled Abdel-Hamid, head of Treasury at Union National Bank of the UAE in Egypt. “We need transparency. The people have to know the real position of the economy in Egypt.”

He predicted in 2013, the pound will continue to devalue and inflation rates will rise, affecting the price of food and basic commodities.

“What matters is the end result. People want to live. If people can’t find food or security, what does it mean if there is a president or constitution?” banker Abdel-Hamid said.

The London-based consultancy Capital Economics has said, though, that the Egyptian pound “looks significantly overvalued” and estimated that it might need to fall by around 20 percent in order to restore competitiveness.

Core inflation, which excludes regulated items and fruit and vegetables, rose to 4.6 percent in October month from 3.8 percent on an annual basis in September. Subsidy cuts and tax increases linked to the IMF agreement could push inflation to 8 percent next year, Capital Economics estimated.

Egyptian Prime Minister Hesham Kandil said Tuesday that his government was focused on luring foreign investors back to Egypt, supporting the foreign reserves and plugging the budget deficit.

“A priority for the government to raise employment rates, reduce inflation levels and increase Egyptian exports’ competition abroad,” he said.

Leading civil society and rights groups have protested against the IMF deal, saying that the government has not released the terms of the agreement being worked out. Rumors swirling around impending tax hikes, subsidy cuts and other bread-and-butter issues have heightened the public’s concern. Around 40 percent of Egyptians live just at or below the poverty line of surviving on around $ 2 a day.

Promises by Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood group that the Islamist-drafted constitution would bring about the stability Egyptians crave were dismissed by economic experts who warned that without enough currency reserves, there is little to stop the pound from falling steeply in value.

“If anything, we were stable. We are still entering the period of instability,” said Haytham Abdel Fattah, head of the Treasury and International Markets Manager at Industrial Development Bank. “The instability of the foreign exchange rate is not at all detached from the political instability. It is a reflection and clear mirror to what is happening,” he added.

Tens of thousands of Egyptians protested ahead of the referendum on the charter to demand a new and more diverse assembly to draft the constitution. Instead, the Islamist-dominated assembly hurriedly passed it before a court could rule on the panel’s legitimacy. Morsi issued decrees, later rescinded, that gave him near-absolute powers to push the constitution to a nationwide vote.

Backers of the Brotherhood and others Islamist parties also rallied in support of the charter, leaving the country split and leading to violent clashes between the two camps on Dec. 5 that killed 10 outside the presidential palace in Cairo this month. The turmoil rocked Egypt’s stock market, delayed the IMF loan talks and hurt the country’s peak tourism season.

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Toronto reaches skyward, but how dark the clouds?

TORONTO (Reuters) – Barry Fenton walked to the bank of floor-to-ceiling windows in his 30th-floor uptown Toronto penthouse suite and declared, “This is the best view of the city.”

To the south, a mass of steel-and-glass skyscrapers glinted in the bright autumn sun. Several cranes were in motion on unfinished buildings, a common sight in a city in the midst of a residential building boom.

“If you look around the core, every building you look at has a different look to it, a different ambience,” said the energetic co-founder of Lanterra Developments, one of the city’s most active builders. “That’s important.”

Fenton, 56, says he is confident the city’s condominium market will remain strong — despite warnings that it is all moving too far, too fast — and has an ambitious lineup for future development. And he is not alone in his optimism.

Toronto‘s seams are bursting with new condo and hotel towers designed by star architects like Frank Gehry and built by famed developers like Donald Trump.

But Fenton and others who see Toronto emerging from its “pokey” past — as a columnist in the Globe and Mail recently described it — face some formidable obstacles: an infrastructure buckling under soaring density rates, the laws of supply and demand and preservationists who say too many new towers are destroying the city’s character.

Canada’s central bank drew a bead on the city of 2.6 million this month in its weighty “Financial System Review,” warning of “potential future supply imbalances” in the condo market.

The Bank of Canada noted that the number of unsold condominiums in pre-construction has doubled, to 14,000, over the past year.

Greater Toronto home sales have slowed after years of steady increases. Sales fell 16 percent in November from the same month a year ago, according to the Toronto Real East Board. So far, however, prices are flattening, not falling, as some analysts have predicted.

In defiance of warnings by the central bank and economists, two mega-projects were unveiled within days of each other in October — a three-tower condo complex to be designed by Gehry and a multi-tower office project that includes a massive casino.

RACE TO THE TOP

More skyscrapers — 147 of them — are being built in Toronto than anywhere in North America, according to Emporis, the German data provider. That is twice as many as in New York, a city with about three times the population.

Toronto is getting taller fast. Fifteen buildings that will be more than 150 meters (492 feet) high are under construction, more than anywhere in the western hemisphere.

The recently completed Trump International Hotel topped out at 277 meters, just shy of Toronto’s tallest skyscraper, the 72-story First Canadian Place, which is 298 meters. That height could be exceeded by a couple of major projects on the drawing boards, including the Mirvish project.

(The city’s tallest freestanding structure, however, is the CN Tower, which soars over Toronto at 553 meters.)

“Toronto is creating a very sustainable future by building condos downtown,” said Daniel Libeskind, the American architect, who was in Toronto in October for a ceremony for one of his latest projects, the 57-story L Tower, with its sweeping, curvaceous, design that rises above the city’s modernist Sony Center for Performing Arts.

“It fights urban sprawl and brings people into the heart of the city.”

While building in big American cities and in Western Europe cratered following the financial crisis four years ago, Toronto never stopped booming. Demand for residential space has been strong, and while the office market has also been healthy, most of the new developments have been for condo projects.

Lanterra’s Fenton said his company has built some 9,000 condominium units in Toronto over the past 10 years and now has “in the hopper” up to 6 million square feet of property in downtown Toronto that is being rezoned for new projects.

Lanterra gained prominence over the past five years for the development of Maple Leaf Square, which included two condo towers, a hotel and office space, near the city’s hockey shrine, Air Canada Center, on land that had sat vacant for years.

Now it is “one of the hottest places to be,” said Fenton.

“ONE TOWER LEADS TO ANOTHER”

Some worry that Toronto can’t handle much more development.

“We have accumulated a serious infrastructure deficit,” wrote Ken Greenberg, a Toronto architect, in the Globe and Mail in October. “We have failed to make the investments in public transit that are urgently needed. Our narrow sidewalks and poorly designed streets are already jammed.”

He criticized the city officials and developers for a lack of coordinated planning. “One tower leads to another,” he said.

Despite decades of debate about transportation policy, Toronto has just two subway lines, a fleet of charming but lumbering streetcar lines and crumbling roadways.

Commuters in Toronto spend at least 80 minutes in traffic a day, on average — worse than what commuters face in London or Los Angeles — according to the Toronto Board of Trade.

Toronto’s City Planning Department did not respond to numerous requests for comment.

There is also concern about soaring neighborhood density rates. The city’s waterfront area has seen the most growth. Its population has soared 134 percent in a decade and is up 66 percent in the past five years, to 43,295, according to city data.

Toronto’s aging energy grid is strained. In July, downtown Toronto endured an eight-hour blackout after a transformer blew due to high demand. There was a similar outage last January.

THE MEGA-PROJECTS

Now two of the most ambitious projects the city has ever seen are being floated.

First out of the gate was theater impresario David Mirvish, who with his father, the late Ed Mirvish, helped create Toronto’s vibrant arts and theater scene.

In early October, Mirvish unveiled a plan for three condominium towers, with up to 85 floors each, that would be the city’s tallest buildings.

A podium at the buildings’ base would house two museums, including one for the Mirvish family’s contemporary art collection.

The Mirvish buildings would be designed by Gehry, the celebrated Canadian-born architect whose 76-story 8 Spruce Street residential tower was just completed in New York.

“These towers can become a symbol of what Toronto can be,” the 83-year-old Gehry said at project’s unveiling. “I am not building condominiums, I am building three sculptures for people to live in.”

Two weeks later, Oxford Properties Group, a Canadian developer with a $ 20 billion global real estate portfolio, announced a $ 3 billion makeover of the downtown convention center, just south of the Mirvish and Gehry project. It envisions a casino, two hotel towers and two office towers that would be among the tallest in the city.

Adam Vaughan, a city councilor whose district would encompass both projects, said a lot more planning is needed. He had kinder words for the Mirvish proposal — “it’s a transformative and astonishing proposal” — than for Oxford’s project, which he called “all out of proportion.”

“It’s time to have a really smart conversation about how we are building this neighborhood because there is a hell of lot of density arriving not just with this project but with all the projects that have been approved,” he said in an interview.

AT THE KIT KAT

Al Carbone, owner for the past three decades of the Kit Kat restaurant, doesn’t think people like Vaughan are listening to him, as the councilor and other politicians are not heeding the growing concerns about the rapid pace of development.

He said buildings are springing up too close to lot lines, creating jammed sidewalks and alleyways. And the sun does not shine on the streets like it once did.

He supports the Mirvish project, which would preserve his street, known as Restaurant Row. But he is battling a separate 47-story building that would go up steps away from his restaurant.

The plan, which still must be approved, would retain the historic facades of buildings on the street, which Carbone believes will destroy the character of the row.

“It’s a tough battle,” said Carbone, who launched the website SaveRestaurantrow.com to drum up support in opposition to the project. “You can’t have a condo on every corner.”

WHERE IS TORONTO HEADED?

Some believe Toronto is at a crossroads as developers, politicians and citizens debate the rapid changes the city’s urban landscape.

The Globe and Mail’s Marcus Gee dismissed the idea that the development was somehow bad for the city in a column in October, saying the condo boom “has transformed our once-pokey downtown into a vibrant, around-the-clock urban community.”

David Lieberman, an architect who also teaches at the University of Toronto’s architectural school, agrees the new developments have been good for the city, but he is not sure the city’s citizens are ready for it.

“We have such an excellent opportunity to get things right, but there is the Canadian conservatism,” Lieberman said, sipping coffee in his studio in an old downtown Toronto house. “Canadians in their city building are not risk takers.”

(Reporting By Russ Blinch. Editing by Janet Guttsman and Douglas Royalty)

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Sprint salesman refuses to sell iPhone to customer, says his ‘fingers are too fat’ to use it

We’ve known for a while now that some mobile carriers have been instructing their sales staff to start pushing their customers away from Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone and toward Android or Windows Phone devices. The reason is simple: carriers pay a lot more to subsidize Apple’s popular smartphone than they do with other devices and they’d prefer to have higher gross margins at the end of each quarter. But now a Tom’s Hardware reader reports that a Sprint (S) representative has taken pushing non-iPhone products to a whole new level and is actually insulting people who insist on buying the device.

[More from BGR: Online retailers caught using ‘discriminatory’ practices to target shopping discounts]

When the customer told the Sprint representative that he wanted to get an older iPhone 4 for free as part of his upgrade, the representative called the device “a piece of s—” that breaks too easily and is too small for many users.

[More from BGR: First photos of BlackBerry 10 ‘N-Series’ QWERTY smartphone leak]

Instead, the salesman recommended that the customer by a Samsung (005930) Galaxy S III. When the customer again refused, the salesman took things a step farther and told the man that his fingers were simply too fat to use the iPhone and that he’d need a larger screen to use a smartphone properly.

Needless to say, these up-sell-by-insult tactics weren’t exactly effective for the salesperson and the customer angrily stormed out of the store without buying a new phone.

This article was originally published by BGR

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Thousands sign US petition to deport Piers Morgan

LONDON (AP) — Tens of thousands of people have signed a petition calling for British CNN host Piers Morgan to be deported from the U.S. over his gun control views.

Morgan has taken an aggressive stand for tighter U.S. gun laws in the wake of the Newtown, Connecticut, school shooting. Last week, he called a gun advocate appearing on his “Piers Morgan Tonight” show an “unbelievably stupid man.”

Now, gun rights activists are fighting back. A petition created Dec. 21 on the White House e-petition website by a user in Texas accuses Morgan of engaging in a “hostile attack against the U.S. Constitution” by targeting the Second Amendment. It demands he be deported immediately for “exploiting his position as a national network television host to stage attacks against the rights of American citizens.”

The petition has already hit the 25,000 signature threshold to get a White House response. By Monday, it had 31,813 signatures.

Morgan seemed unfazed — and even amused — by the movement.

In a series of Twitter messages, he alternately urged his followers to sign the petition and in response to one article about the petition said “bring it on” as he appeared to track the petition’s progress.

“If I do get deported from America for wanting fewer gun murders, are there any other countries that will have me?” he wrote.

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Truth About Santa Still Stings Adults

Emily Charlton, as a wide-eyed fourth grader, said she felt betrayed by her classmates on her elementary school playground during recess just before the holidays.

“It was a day or two before Christmas break so we were talking about what we had asked for and I remember saying at one point, ‘Well I asked Santa for…’ and everyone started laughing,” said Charlton, now a 29-year-old waitress from San Diego. “I think they thought I was making a joke.”

She stood her ground. “I remember feeling embarrassed and upset,” said Charlton. “My belief, however, was unchanged.”

But it got worse.

A few days later, she was at Toys “R” Us with her father and saw him pack a long, narrow box into the trunk. On Christmas morning, her younger sister opened up an electric keyboard from Santa in that same box.

Charlton ran to her mother for reassurance that what she suspected was wrong.

“I will never forget what came next,” she said. “She looked at me, and without skipping a beat said, ‘Don’t tell your brother and sister.’ I was devastated. … A huge bomb was dropped on me and as silly as it sounds, it really changed my life.

“The worst part of all was how unceremoniously it happened, it was like one minute I was a child full of wonderment, and in a flash was snapped into a world of non-believing, magic-less adults.”

Parents aren’t the only grinches this time of year.

In Ontario, Canada, this week a man walked along a Christmas parade route telling kids there is no Santa Claus, according to 24 Hours Vancouver. The 24-year-old, whose hair was gelled to look like horns, was arrested for intoxication and causing a disturbance.

And a news anchor in Chicago went on a rant against the jolly old man after a segment on holiday expectations and the bad economy, according to the Huffington Post.

“Stop trying to convince your kids that Santa is Santa,” said Robin Robinson of Fox Chicago. “That’s why they have these high expectations. They know you can’t afford it, so what do they do? Just ask some man in a red suit. There is no Santa.”

Robinson later apologized.

Of course the truth is inevitable, unless you are a logical middle-school child who has done a careful “cost-benefit analysis.”

“I was one of those kids who stretched a belief in Santa for as long as possible, probably well past a point of willful ignorance,” said Peter Dacey, a 27-year-old from Easton, Conn.

He had been the recipient of several “Christmas miracles.” One was the “coolest space Lego out there,” the working monorail, which he was convinced was too expensive for his parents to give him.

The other came right out of the “Miracle on 34th Street” playbook when his family was living in temporary housing, looking for a new home.

“All I wanted for Christmas was for us to find a house,” said Dacey. “Strangely, that year I found a little box in the tree left for me that contained some random key. But it didn’t seem so strange when I realized that it must be the key to our new home. I took it with me to the next few open houses we went to, and lo and behold, it fit in one.”

In the end, it was a question of what reaped the most rewards.

“If you don’t believe in Santa, no good comes of it, as either you’re correct or you’re not, in which case have fun forcing your parents to get you all your future Christmas gifts while Santa visits the believers,” said Dacey. “On the other hand, if you do believe, the worst that can happen is that you find out you were wrong, and what’s the harm there?”

To this day, Dacey said there is a part of him that “still believes,” at least in the messages of love and giving.

“I suppose I stopped believing in a living, breathing jolly-old-elf over a number of middle-school years, but have never stopped believing in Santa,” he said. “I hope the silver sleigh bell would still ring for me.”

Emily Charlton is still miffed that Mom spilled the beans.

“It was honestly the first time I can remember feeling heartbreak,” she said. “I don’t think it was just about the belief in Santa, but about the belief in magic and wonder and make believe, and everything that makes your childhood so great,” she said.

But one parent — now a grandmother who dresses up each year pretending to be an elf — defended herself for bringing a dose of reality to her household when she was raising a family.

She was outraged when her 6-year-old son was sent to the principal’s office for telling his first-grade class there was no Santa Claus.

“Man, was I mad about that,” said Martha Chabinsky, a 59-year-old yoga teacher from Amherst, N.H. “Punishing a kid for telling the truth.”

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Retailers launch online bargains

24 December 2012 Last updated at 12:20 ET

The battle for the consumer has moved online with retailers bringing forward the start of sales after reports of lacklustre spending on the High Street.

Marks & Spencer and John Lewis are among major names to start discounting online in the hope that shoppers will be browsing sites over Christmas.

Sales online have traditionally begun on Christmas Day or Boxing Day.

Reports that millions of consumers will spend the holiday shopping online prompted a warning from Church leaders.

Former Archbishop of Canterbury Lord Carey said Christmas was a “special time” and should be spent with family and not logging-on. “We are now in danger of the gadgets taking over our lives and we are not in control of them,” he said.

And Steve Jenkins, a spokesman for the Church of England, urged people to make time to go to church and “maybe spend a bit of time online spending their new Christmas vouchers”.

But with the British Retail Consortium (BRC) warning that Christmas sales generally were likely to be “acceptable” rather than “exceptional”, retailers are looking for every opportunity to maximise sales.

M&S began its sales online at midday on Monday, while department store John Lewis said it would cut online prices when its stores close at 1700 GMT.

Debenhams has already started its online sale. Online giant Amazon will start its sale on Christmas morning, a day earlier than usual.

Continue reading the main story

We suspect that people will likely be more careful in buying – or reluctant to buy – items that they don’t really want or need in the sales”

End Quote Howard Archer IHS Global Insight

A report from Ofcom, the telecoms regulator, has estimated that shoppers spend an average £1,000 a year online each year. This is more than in any other country, including the US.

The popularity of online retailing contrasts with continued problems for the High Street.

‘Modest’

The BRC forecast that £5bn would be spent in the shops on Saturday and Sunday combined, the last weekend before Christmas. But Richard Dodd, the BRC’s head of Media and Campaigns, said that was nothing to get excited about, adding: “It’s been a very busy weekend which will be crucial to delivering a Christmas that is acceptable, rather than exceptional.”

He forecast a modest increase in cash spending on a year go, but not necessarily any significant increase because household finances are under pressure.

Economist analyst Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight said the weakening in household finances could not come at a worse time for retailers, and it highlighted why Christmas spending was so modest.

“The suspicion has to be that consumers will be especially keen to take advantage of genuine major bargains in the sales to acquire items that they cannot otherwise afford or are reluctant to make at the moment,” he said.

“However, we suspect that people will likely to be more careful in buying – or reluctant to buy – items that they don’t really want or need in the sales.”

Nevertheless, some shops reported brisk trading.

Sainsbury’s reported its busiest ever hour in terms of customers served from midday to 1pm on Sunday, while 35 branches opened at midnight and traded until 6pm on Monday.

More than a million visitors were expected in London’s West End during the three-day period from Saturday to Christmas Eve, during which more than £100m was expected to be spent.

‘Critical condition’

Bluewater shopping centre in Kent was also anticipating a surge in sales on Monday as Saturday’s footfall was up 14% from the previous week.

And the problems facing retailers was underlined on Monday in a report by business recovery group Begbies Traynor. It estimated that tough Christmas trading conditions had left nearly 140 firms in a “critical” condition.

Book retailers were among those in significant distress, hit by competition from players such as Amazon, while convenience stores have suffered from the rising dominance of supermarkets.

However, online retailers have seen sales figures improve, Begbies said.

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Bolivia’s Morales visits Cuba after Chavez surgery

HAVANA (AP) — Bolivian President Evo Morales has made a lightning trip to Havana where key ally Hugo Chavez is convalescing after cancer surgery.

Morales did not speak to foreign journalists during his weekend visit. Cuban state-run media didn’t confirm that he visited Chavez, but said he came “to express his support” for the Venezuelan president. The Cuban government had invited media to cover Morales’ arrival Saturday and departure Sunday but withdrew the invitation with no explanation.

Photos released by Cuban media showed President Raul Castro greeting Morales at the airport in Havana.

Morales aides said Monday he planned to make a statement later about Chavez.

Chavez underwent on Dec. 11 his fourth cancer-related operation since last year, two months after winning reelection to a six-year term. Venezuelan officials say his condition is stable.

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Sri Lanka arrests 100 Chinese for cyber fraud, police say

COLOMBO (Reuters) – Sri Lanka on Saturday arrested at least 100 Chinese nationals accused of an internet fraud scheme targeting people in their home country, a police spokesman said.

The accused, all in Sri Lanka on tourist visas, are suspected of hacking into computers in China and then demanding their owners transfer them money, police spokesman Prishantha Jayakodi told Reuters.

Chinese police requested help from Sri Lanka, he said.

Officials at the Chinese embassy in Colombo were not available for comment.

China has been the top lender to Sri Lanka since the end of a 25-year war in May 2009 and thousands of Chinese are working in the country on Chinese-funded infrastructure projects.

(Reporting by Shihar Aneez; editing by Jason Webb)

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Fear, finger-pointing mount over U.S. fiscal cliff

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Top U.S. lawmakers voiced rising fear on Sunday that the country would go over “the fiscal cliff” in nine days, triggering harsh spending cuts and tax hikes, and some Republicans charged that was President Barack Obama‘s goal.

“It’s the first time that I feel it’s more likely that we will go over the cliff than not,” Senator Joe Lieberman, an independent from Connecticut, said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

“If we allow that to happen it will be the most colossal consequential act of congressional irresponsibility in a long time, maybe ever in American history,” Lieberman added.

The Democratic president and Republican House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, the two key negotiators, are not talking and are out of town for the Christmas holidays. Congress is in recess, and will have only a few days next week to act before January 1.

On the Sunday news shows, no one signaled a change of position that could form the basis for a short-term fix, despite a suggestion from Obama on Friday that he would favor one.

The focus was shifting instead to the days following January 1 when the lowered tax rates dating back to the George W. Bush administration will have expired, presenting Congress with a redefined and more welcome task that involves only cutting taxes, not raising them.

“I believe we are,” going over the cliff, said Republican Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming. “I think the president is eager to go over the cliff for political purposes. I think he sees a political victory at the bottom of the cliff,” Barrasso said on Fox News Sunday.

Some Republicans have said Obama would welcome the fiscal cliff’s tax increases and defense cuts, as well as the chance to blame Republicans for rejecting deal. Obama has rejected that assertion.

Congress started the clock ticking in August of 2011 on the cliff. The threat of about $ 600 billion of spending cuts and tax increases was intended to shock the Democratic-led White House and Senate and the Republican-led House into bridging their many differences to approve a plan to bring tax relief to most Americans and curb runaway federal spending.

Economists say the harsh tax increases and budget cuts from the fiscal cliff could thrust the world’s largest economy back into a recession, unless Congress acts quickly to ease the economic blow.

MARKETS COULD TUMBLE

The most immediate impact could come in financial markets, which have been relatively calm in recent weeks as Republicans and Democrats bickered, but could tumble without prospects for a deal.

Markets will be open for a half-day on Christmas Eve, when Congress will not be in session, and will be closed on Tuesday for Christmas.

Wall Street will resume regular stock trading on Wednesday, but volume is expected to be light throughout the week with scores of market participants away on a holiday break.

If Congress fails to reach any agreement, income tax rates will go up on just about everyone on January 1. Unemployment benefits, which Democrats had hoped to extend as part of a deal, will expire for many as well.

In the first week of January, Congress could scramble and get a quick deal on taxes and the $ 109 billion in automatic spending cuts for 2013 that most lawmakers want to avoid.

Once tax rates go up on January 1, it could be easier to keep those higher rates on wealthier taxpayers while reducing them for middle- and lower-income taxpayers. Lawmakers would not have to cast votes to raise taxes.

Some lawmakers expressed guarded hope that a short-term deal on deficit-reduction could be reached in the next week or so, with a longer more permanent deal hammered out next year.

But a short-term deal would need bipartisan support, as Obama has said he would veto a bill that does not raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

Democratic Senator Kent Conrad, chairman of the Budget Committee, said Obama and Boehner are not that far apart and that both sides should keep pushing for a long-term big deal.

“I would hope we would have one last attempt here to do what everyone knows needs to be done, which is the larger plan that really does stabilize the debt and get us moving in the right direction,” Conrad of North Dakota told Fox News Sunday.

(Reporting By Thomas Ferraro and Richard Cowan; Editing by Fred Barbash and Vicki Allen)

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Italy’s Monti opens door to seeking new term

ROME (Reuters) – Two days after stepping down, Mario Monti announced on Sunday he would consider seeking a second term as Italian prime minister if approached by allies committed to backing his austere brand of reforms.

The former European commissioner, appointed to lead an unelected government of experts to save Italy from financial crisis a year ago, resigned on Friday but has faced growing calls to seek a second term at a parliamentary election on February 24-25.

At stake is the leadership of the world’s eighth largest economy, where recession and public debt of more than 2 trillion ($ 2.63 billion) have aggravated investor concerns about growth and stability in the euro zone.

“If a credible political force asked me to be candidate as prime minister for them, I would consider it,” said Monti, who has imposed repeated tax hikes and spending cuts to shore up Italy’s strained public finances.

He had kept his position a closely guarded secret for weeks, and in recent days had appeared to be have strong doubts about whether to continue in front-line politics. He made clear that if he ran, it would probably be at the head of a centrist grouping.

Monti held back from committing himself fully to the race, and said he was aware any decision to stay in politics carried “many risks and a high probability of failure”.

“I am not in any party. I am ready to give my appreciation and encouragement, to be leader and to take on any responsibility I may be given by parliament,” he said.

As a senator for life, Monti has no need to run for election to parliament but he said he would publish a detailed agenda of recommendations for a future government and would potentially be willing to lead a party that adopted it as its own.

Still serving as caretaker leader, Monti is widely respected for restoring Italy’s reputation after the scandal-plagued era of his predecessor Silvio Berlusconi.

The former economics professor is backed strongly by Italy’s business establishment and by EU allies including German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He has been urged to stay by centrist groups ranging from disaffected former Berlusconi allies to the small UDC party, which is close to the Catholic church.

But there is little sign of enthusiasm for a second term among voters weary of his austerity policies. A survey last week showed 61 percent did not think he should stand. It said a potential centrist alliance under his leadership was likely to gain around 15 percent support.

BITTER ELECTION

Both Berlusconi’s center-right People of Freedom (PDL) party and the center-left Democratic Party (PD), which is leading in the opinion polls, have urged Monti not to stand in the election.

Berlusconi, who left office last year with fraud charges and a juvenile prostitution scandal hanging over him, has accused Monti’s “Germano-centric” government of worsening recession with austerity measures, including a deeply unpopular housing tax he has promised to scrap.

In an exchange which may give a taste of bitter campaigning to come, Berlusconi said his nightmare would be a government with Monti at its head and Gianfranco Fini, a former ally turned bitter foe who supports the premier, “coming out of the sewers”.

Fini’s lieutenant Fabio Granata responded by saying Berlusconi’s remark was “fitting for his court of thieves, mafiosi, corrupt politicians, slaves and prostitutes.”

Monti was also scathing about Berlusconi, whom he replaced as Italy teetered on the brink of disaster in November 2011.

He said he had been “bewildered” by the 76-year-old media tycoon’s frequent changes of position. And, in an interview with La Repubblica daily, he expressed incredulity that Italians might re-elect Berlusconi “after seeing the damage he did to the Italian economy and the credibility of the country”.

PD leader Pier Luigi Bersani, whose party has backed Monti in parliament and pledges to maintain the broad course he has set, was more cautious, saying he would look at Monti’s reform proposals closely but that it would be up to voters to decide.

Monti said he hoped the next government would have a strong majority to pursue a programme that would extend the reforms his government had begun, in areas ranging from the labor market to justice and cutting the bloated cost of the political system.

He said the next government must not make easy election promises or backtrack on reforms: “We have to avoid illusory and extremely dangerous steps backwards.”

During his 13 months in office, Monti hiked taxes severely and chopped backed spending while pushing through reforms of the pension system, labor market and parts of the service sector.

However, many analysts said his efforts were too timid to significantly improve the outlook of a chronically sluggish economy, and Monti himself said that Italy was “only at the beginning of the structural reforms” required.

Italy, the euro zone’s third-largest economy, has been in recession since the middle of last year. Consumer spending is falling at its fastest rate since World War Two and unemployment has risen to a record high above 11 percent.

(Editing by Barry Moody and Mark Trevelyan)

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